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  • Bank of America’s Michael Hartnett predicts a no-landing scenario for the US economy for now.
  • But the longer this scenario plays out, the higher recession risks become.
  • Signs of trouble ahead include falling small-business optimism and a drop in high-yield bonds.

Michael Hartnett, Bank of America’s top global strategist, thinks a no-landing scenario is the most-likely outcome for the US economy in the months ahead. That means the labor market would remain strong, but inflation would also stay above the Federal Reserve’s long-term goal of 2%.

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